The Story of Technology

The Story of Technology by Daniel M. Gerstein

 

Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, technology is a crucial driver of change. This book is a fantastic resource that summarizes operational and research knowledge to gain some predictive capabilities. One of the key points worth discussing is avoiding pitfalls in R&D. High-risk undertakings will be increasingly common in the body of future research. The stakes are increasingly high. Our current technological choices have put the entire planet in a precarious position. There is a dependence on existing technologies to the point that there is no way out. Any hiccup in the key economic sectors like energy, information, or security results in significant consequences felt across the globe. At this time, we are learning how much exposure we had to healthcare-related risks. The ripple effects of the pandemic will be visible for decades.

The book's three significant focus areas are biotech, artificial intelligence, and the internet of things. There is a consensus in the research community about these areas. Biotech research is increasingly entering the nano-tech field, and to a certain extent, robotics increasingly crucial in this field. Many research directions require massive amounts of data analysis that connect it with AI and data mining. We don't need to elaborate on AI. Some of the areas of AI, like machine learning, are currently on the first pages of business and technical magazines. Internet of Things (IoT) is a collection of technologies that enable networking, data processing, and many other aspects of utilizing vast quantities of data produced by more-or-less intelligent devices.

I agree with Dr. Gersten that responsible R&D is increasingly challenging. There are many examples in the book that show catastrophic results of progress in specific directions. Designing systems with safety as a mandatory feature is at a new level of complexity given the advancement in AI-driven and autonomous systems. The set of unintended consequences naturally increases with the complexity of the design. It appears that many technologies will be maturing without a significant discussion about general design issues or guidelines. The drone technology went under the radar and rapidly progressed. Consumer products have significantly benefited. The military applications might be saving lives, but many applications are outright scary. It appears that AI will be similarly evolving without much regulatory interference despite the alarm bells ringing from time to time.

The author is quoting the Gartner Hype Cycle predicting method for identifying "megatrends" areas of economic growth. This research is an excellent tool for studying the building blocks of larger technologies. The "top 12" of the McKinsey study is a similar tool that identifies disruptive technologies using multiple criteria like the scope, pace of advancement, direct economic impact.

Daniel Gerstein provides an excellent discussion on technology development as a process of synchronization and coordination of systems which nicely connects this material to the broad field of cybernetics.

  

#cybernetics #technology #automation #ai #digitaltransformation #future #scienceandtechnology #innovation #safety #complexity

https://www.amazon.com/Story-Technology-Here-Future-Holds/dp/163388578X